Prairie Village, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

159
FXUS63 KEAX 252003
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
303 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous flash flooding remains possible early this morning
  from eastern Kansas into western and northern Missouri. This
  includes the Kansas City Metro area.

- The flash flooding potential continues this afternoon into
  Saturday Morning, mainly for areas along and north of the
  Missouri River. There could also be a few strong to severe
  storms this afternoon and evening from northeast Kansas into
  northwest Missouri.

- Hot and humid conditions return this weekend and persist
  through the middle of the next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

The potential for dangerous flash flooding continues this afternoon
into Saturday morning as this heavy rainfall setup mostly persists.
A surface boundary draped across central MO extending from a weak
surface low currently (as of 19Z) over eastern KS, is anticipated to
drift slightly northward continuing to provide lift for
thunderstorms. At the same time, stronger flow around a MCV over
eastern KS has increased shear near the southeastern quadrant
creating a more favorable environment for strong to severe storms.
Ongoing thunderstorms will continue to develop in eastern KS and
gradually track to the northeast. The main threat will be excessive
rainfall leading to additional dangerous flooding. Tall skinny CAPE
profiles, 12-14 kft warm cloud layers, and PWATs around or exceeding
the climatological max for this time of year once again suggest the
potential for a very efficient rain-producing environment. A 25-35
kt low-level jet will diurnally strengthen this evening increasing
moisture transport thus, supporting thunderstorm development into
tomorrow morning. An additional 1-4 inches anticipated with locally
higher amounts above 6 inches possible. There is some uncertainty
concerning the exact locations of higher rainfall totals, but
eastern KS into northwestern MO (including the KC Metro) appear to
be the most common areas among recent models. This will depend on
how far north the surface boundary will track through the day.
Recent model runs have been trending bullseyes for higher
precipitation farther south from yesterday but still north of areas
that have already received the heaviest rainfall amounts (areas
south of a line from Atchison (KS) to Randolph county). That being
said, dangerous flooding conditions will not be challenging to reach
with FFG as low as it is due to recent rainfall. WPC has issued a
moderate risk for excessive rainfall for today southwest of a line
from Maryville to Plattsburg. A few of the strongest storms could
also produce isolated severe wind gusts as better shear associated
with the stronger flow around the MCV is present. Also, there are
very low-end chances for a tornado, but a few funnel clouds seem
more likely. A few of the updrafts in eastern KS have already begun
to rotate. The tornado threat will mainly be limited to the
afternoon. Storms will likely become elevated as we progress further
into the night and a capping inversion develops across the area. SPC
has issued a slight risk (2/5) for severe weather for the
southwestern corner of our CWA.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Southwest flow aloft overriding a surface to low-level
stationary front with strong moisture transport feeding in from
the south continues to promote widespread thunderstorms with
very heavy rain across the region this morning. Through 4 AM,
the highest rain amounts have generally been located along the
I-70 and Missouri River corridors, as well as southern and
eastern portions of the Kansas City metro area. Of lesser
concern this morning, dense fog has developed near the northwest
corner of Missouri, with zero to quarter mile visibility
reported consistently from Nebraska City to Clarinda, IA over
the last few hours. Will continue to monitor, but for now the
dense fog appears to be holding just outside the stateline.

Very little change in the synoptic pattern is expected today,
although the surface/low-level frontal boundary could push
slightly northward. A mid-level shortwave and associated MCV
currently over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles is forecast to
eject northeastward into the southern Missouri River Valley
later this afternoon, sparking additional rounds of
thunderstorms. A continuous stream of poleward moisture
transport with greater than 2 in. precipitable water (at or
above the 99th climatological percentile) will continue to
promote a dangerous setup for flash flooding caused by excessive
rainfall through tonight. Due to the location of the heaviest
rainfall overnight and a slight southward shift in the ensemble
mean QPF footprint, the segment of the Flood Watch that remains
in effect until 4 AM this morning has been expanded southward,
and now includes Johnson County in Kansas and Jackson to Saline
to Macon Counties in Missouri, and all other counties in both
states to the north. Counties to the south that remain under a
Flood Watch still have an expiration time of 10 AM this morning.
While the potential for additional flash flooding remains the
greatest concern for convection later today, there could also be
a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and perhaps a weak tornado, though confidence in the latter
being a threat is low. Forecast deep layer shear only around 25
to 30 kts will be a limiting factor preventing more widespread
severe storms. HREF UH tracks show the highest likelihood of a
stronger to severe storm to be along and northwest of I-35.

Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast for Saturday, but there is a much lower risk for severe
storms and excessive rainfall. The NBM then favors a period of
drier weather through Tuesday before 20 to 40 percent chances
for showers and storms return mid week. The greatest concern for
the long term forecast period is the potential for excessive
heat as a dome of high pressure builds over the southern CONUS
this weekend into next week. Sunday through Tuesday looks to be
the most concerning time period, with forecast highs in the 90s
and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s yielding maximum heat
indices around 105 to 110 each day, possibly pushing 115 on
Monday. The upper ridge is then favored to retreat westward for
the second half of next week, allowing a cooler and slightly
less humid air mass to approach from a seasonably strong surface
high pressure over the Upper Mississippi River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

MVFR-VFR ceilings remaining over the area with a weak MCV currently
(as of 18Z) over eastern KS. Showers and storms are anticipated
to develop this afternoon into the evening. A strengthening low
level jet will support storm development late into tonight
possibly into tomorrow morning. Due to low confidence on timing
went with storms from around 23Z to 07Z for now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>032-037>039.
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ025-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...Collier